{"id":602,"date":"2023-01-09T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-09T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T20:26:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T20:26:30","slug":"why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the S&amp;P 500 Isn\u2019t \u201cSafe\u201d (and Never Has Been)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Take a look at this chart. Can you guess what it\u2019s measuring?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/unnamed28329.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Is it the S&amp;P 500\u2019s performance over time?&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Close! It represents <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/?geo=US\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\"><em>searches<\/em><\/span><\/a> for the term \u201cS&amp;P 500\u201d over time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/280d9335-ac2d-485b-a6be-0e2be9e60382\/S%26P-500-searches?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Why am I looking at this? Well, mostly because I don\u2019t have other empirical ways to get a pulse check on public awareness of a phenomenon beyond Google Trends data. <strong>I\u2019m using increasing search volume as a proxy for public interest in the S&amp;P 500<\/strong> (the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/spdji\/en\/indices\/equity\/sp-500\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">index<\/span><\/a> that measures the performance of the 500-odd largest American companies by market capitalization).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now, we could explain away this increase a few different ways:<\/p>\n<ul data-rte-list=\"default\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The Google search trends data (and the methodology that Emperor Google uses to measure search trends) have changed over time, calling into question the accuracy of such a graph.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Personal finance education has become more popular in the last decade, in part due to the internet and social media.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In short, we <em>could<\/em> explain the increasing interest in the S&amp;P 500 over the last few years with other stories. Or we could compare searches with <em>actual<\/em> performance:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/b4a18e13-e431-46f7-884b-d0dee60a2ae5\/S%26P-performance-over-time?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><em>Note the delineation for 2004, where the search trend data above begins.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Correlation does not equal causation, but there\u2019s a simple explanation I\u2019d like to offer here: <strong>Recency bias<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Line goes up. People take notice. New investors are attracted. Narrative is formed. (Also known as: Fund flows tend to follow\u2014that is, chase\u2014returns. When something is performing well, it attracts a <em>ton<\/em> of new cash (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youngmoney.co\/p\/arkk-full\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">Cathie Wood\u2019s ARKK<\/span><\/a> being the most recent, microcosmic example.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Because the S&amp;P 500 has performed exceptionally well in the last decade (and we\u2019ll get into that shortly), it\u2019s a fan favorite for investors everywhere.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Over time, a very cozy narrative has developed around the S&amp;P 500 and its annualized 9% returns, lulling investors into a dangerous \u201cexpectation trap.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">When money is cheap, growth stocks generally pop off<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There\u2019s a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/stocks\/09\/how-interest-rates-affect-markets.asp#:~:text=When%20interest%20rates%20are%20rising,causing%20stock%20prices%20to%20rise.\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">general consensus<\/span><\/a> in the investing world that there\u2019s a correlation between the Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy (specifically, interest rates) and stock market performance. For example, this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/insights\/ishares-2023-year-ahead-investor-guide#theme-2\" target=\"_blank\">analysis<\/a> from BlackRock demonstrates how S&amp;P 500 P\/E ratios map to interest rates over the last 12 years; when rates are negative, P\/E ratios tend to be higher, and vice versa.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">When the cost of borrowing money is cheap, the thinking goes, we expect future earnings\u2014and returns on stocks, the securitized devices that represent a company and its earnings\u2014to be higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">When the cost of borrowing money rises, we expect future earnings and stock returns to be lower.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">There\u2019s a loosely inverse relationship.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And what do we know about the last 10 years? A picture\u2019s worth a thousand words! Below, you\u2019ll see the <em>Federal Funds Effective Rate<\/em>\u2014a bunch of fancy words that basically mean, \u201cHow expensive is it to borrow money?\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The higher the line on the graph, the more expensive money is. Check out the line post-2008, especially relative to the previous 60 years:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/6f261d0b-e875-441c-a111-0dcf7df25b4a\/FFER-post-2008?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Things have been awfully ZIRP-y.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">(ZIRP is the acronym for \u201cZero Interest Rate Policy,\u201d an approach to monetary policy that tries to jumpstart economic activity by making borrowing money really cheap. In other words, the interest rate is at, near, or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/articles\/investing\/070915\/how-negative-interest-rates-work.asp\" target=\"_blank\">sometimes even below<\/a> zero.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">It\u2019s true that this correlation (between high returns and low rates) exists, but it\u2019s also true that\u2014at <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dollarsanddata\/status\/1611023131266646021\" target=\"_blank\">other points in history<\/a>\u2014reality flouted this expectation. Between 1940 and 1969, rates rose <em>and<\/em> the S&amp;P 500 had positive real returns. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In that sense, it\u2019s not <em>quite<\/em> as simple as \u201cone goes up, the other goes down,\u201d though this intuitive narrative is <em>very powerful. <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">I don\u2019t want to get into the ~economic theory~ or effectiveness of ZIRP, or how it played out for us. That would be fun (really!), but what I\u2019m <em>more<\/em> interested in is exploring <strong>how a new era of higher interest rates is likely to shift the narrative sentiment (and therefore, investor behavior) around things like the S&amp;P 500.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207022000590\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">narrative sentiment<\/span><\/a> more powerful than data?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Do ~<a href=\"https:\/\/kyla.substack.com\/p\/the-vibecession-the-self-fulfilling\" target=\"_blank\">vibes<\/a>~ and public opinion matter more than reality itself? Do vibes <em>create<\/em> our reality?! (I feel like I\u2019m at Burning Man.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">To dig a little deeper into our earlier note about positive real returns amidst rising rates, <a href=\"https:\/\/lplresearch.com\/2022\/03\/16\/everything-you-need-to-know-about-rate-hikes\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">LPL Financial<\/span><\/a> released some data in March 2022 that showed the average annualized S&amp;P 500 return during Fed rate hike cycles was 4% (in other words, lower than the historical average, but still positive) since the 1940s.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/32b2357d-f3e4-4ea4-9ad7-d257a9a3f001\/LPL+Financial+Data?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In fairness, the data doesn\u2019t appear to be inflation-adjusted, and you probably don\u2019t really give a shit if your stocks are up on a nominal basis if they can buy less bacon at the store than they could last year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">For example, a quick review of S&amp;P 500 returns at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/2324\/sp-500-historical-chart-data\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">this site<\/span><\/a> (where you can easily adjust time periods <em>and<\/em> include or exclude inflation) paints a very different picture of the period between 1977 and 1980 than the LPL data does:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/bb403cbe-7692-4d76-9dd4-2e3beda946c9\/S%26P+Returns+in+1970s+and+1980s?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Regardless, <strong>it almost doesn\u2019t matter if rate hikes don\u2019t <em>actually<\/em> meaningfully impact S&amp;P 500 returns, <em>if <\/em>everyone investing in the stock market thinks (and behaves!) as though they do.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Data is often no match for the narrative that forms <em>around<\/em> the data. A compelling, intuitive story is often more powerful than fact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The end of an era: The \u201csafe bet\u201d of the S&amp;P 500 might be over, for now<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">When rates are continuously ripping and J-Pow refuses to step away from the \u201cCHAOS &amp; VIOLENCE\u201d button that adds another 50 basis points to the Fed funds rate every few months, <strong>we\u2019re going to see a gradual narrative shift in investing circles that moves <em>away <\/em>from presenting the S&amp;P 500 as a \u201csafe\u201d option.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This is probably a good thing. While you\u2019re historically likely to see real returns over any given 20-year period you\u2019re invested in the S&amp;P 500, we humans have a tendency to take a look at recent history and extrapolate it forward.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Writer and investor Nick Maggiulli points out why this is a dangerous inclination in his recent <a href=\"https:\/\/ofdollarsanddata.com\/how-much-growth-can-you-expect\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">piece<\/span><\/a>, \u201cHow Much Growth Can You Expect?\u201d:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u201cI wanted to share these results because there are many personal finance gurus who will advertise expected growth numbers <em>far in excess<\/em> of [real returns] and it can be quite misleading. Most of the expected growth numbers I see tend to be inflated for a few key reasons:<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">They don\u2019t examine people investing <em>over time<\/em> (i.e. DCA)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">They don\u2019t include bonds in the portfolios (it\u2019s 100% stocks which is unrealistic)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">They don\u2019t include Global stocks (they focus solely on U.S. stocks)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">They don\u2019t usually adjust for inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">To quote myself five minutes ago, you\u2019re probably more interested in a realistic estimate for future returns that\u2019ll <strong>accurately reflect the type of life they\u2019ll enable you to live<\/strong> than some pie-in-the-sky, relatively unlikely outcome.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><strong>Am I going to save as aggressively if I think I\u2019ll get 11% annualized returns? No, probably not.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">What if I plan as though I\u2019m only going to realistically 2x my savings over 20 years (around 4.5% real annualized returns)? Well, I\u2019d probably save a little differently.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Again, this is a good thing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">\u201cSave like a pessimist and invest like an optimist,\u201d<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">wrote Morgan Housel, the connoisseur of \u201chuman behavior really jacks up our finances, huh?\u201d hot takes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">While I\u2019m sure we all enjoyed the era of S&amp;P 500 dominance (also correlated with the Alabama <a href=\"https:\/\/dknation.draftkings.com\/2022\/1\/10\/22867083\/alabama-national-championship-game-title-history-how-many-times-have-crimson-tide-won-bcs-cfp-ap\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">dynasty<\/span><\/a> of Saban\u2019s joyless murderball, I might add!), realistic expectations for the future matter, because they influence how we behave, plan, and save.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/qTkVMGi3dFg\" target=\"_blank\">diversification<\/a> beyond a single asset class <em>really<\/em> matters, because the S&amp;P 500 alone is not a surefire bet, even over relatively long periods of time (despite what our recency bias-tainted amygdalas may tell us)\u2014go back just <em>one more decade<\/em> and we can learn that lesson clearly:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.squarespace-cdn.com\/content\/v1\/5e94adbc25a0ae61d843b475\/6293d629-3685-41ff-bf72-01b59d999ba0\/S%26P+2000-2011?format=original\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><em>This is real S&amp;P 500 performance from 2000 to the end of 2011, though as Nicky Numbers pointed out above, this represents one lump sum of cash invested at the beginning, rather than a more realistic dollar-cost averaging approach.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Accurate or not, it\u2019s high time for a narrative shift so this new generation of investors can benefit twofold<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">A more realistic set of expectations for future S&amp;P 500 returns\u2014and, by extension, a more realistic appreciation for diversification beyond it\u2014is good for improving saving behavior, <strong>whether the narrative driving this behavior is data-driven or not<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Moreover, deep downturns provide buying opportunities for younger generations (in both the stock market and housing markets) that aren\u2019t possible when ZIRP pushes things to new, outlandish all-time highs every six weeks\u2014anyone sitting on dry powder in 2008 went on an asset shopping spree that likely propped up the rest of their financial lives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Without these economic blowups and subsequent recessions, the rich stay rich and the young (and broke) get farther and farther behind.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">So no, the S&amp;P 500 isn\u2019t \u201csafe\u201d\u2014<strong>but if you save aggressively and diversify beyond it, you\u2019d be hard-pressed to find a better way to build wealth.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Take a look at this chart. Can you guess what it\u2019s measuring? Is it the S&amp;P 500\u2019s performance over time?&nbsp; Close! It represents searches for the term \u201cS&amp;P 500\u201d over time.&nbsp; Why am I looking at this? Well, mostly because I don\u2019t have other empirical ways to get a pulse check on public awareness of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178814,"featured_media":2405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"si-template-single-post-taxable-investing.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[47,42,44],"class_list":["post-602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-and-taxes","tag-401ks-and-iras","tag-self-employed-investing","tag-taxable-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why the S&amp;P 500 Isn\u2019t \u201cSafe\u201d (and Never Has Been) - Money with Katie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the S&amp;P 500 Isn\u2019t \u201cSafe\u201d (and Never Has Been) - Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Take a look at this chart. Can you guess what it\u2019s measuring? Is it the S&amp;P 500\u2019s performance over time?&nbsp; Close! It represents searches for the term \u201cS&amp;P 500\u201d over time.&nbsp; Why am I looking at this? Well, mostly because I don\u2019t have other empirical ways to get a pulse check on public awareness of [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-09T13:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-03T20:26:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/CroppedBills_Green-Mint_100x756.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1001\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"756\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Katie Gatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Katie Gatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/why-the-s-and-p-500-isnt-safe-and-never-has-been\/\",\"name\":\"Why the S&amp;P 500 Isn\u2019t \u201cSafe\u201d (and Never Has Been) - 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