{"id":558,"date":"2022-07-25T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-25T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/whats-happening-with-economy-not-recession\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T16:45:34","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T16:45:34","slug":"whats-happening-with-economy-not-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/whats-happening-with-economy-not-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"No, We\u2019re Not in a Recession\u2014But Somehow, This Economy *Feels* Worse"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I need to get something off my chest, as we all wait with bated breath for the June 2022 GDP growth numbers on July 29 to learn whether or not we\u2019re officially in \u201crecession\u201d territory. No? Just me?<\/p>\n

But regardless of what the growth numbers say, I think our economy right now is a little\u2026different <\/em>from recessions of yesteryear.<\/p>\n

Why? Well, because it feels like we\u2019re conflating the idea of a recession (true<\/em> GDP contraction, high unemployment, etc.) with our experience of relatively high (but not historically high<\/span><\/a>) inflation and relative<\/em> slowing after a ton of money printing and the last decade\u2019s abnormally low interest rates. <\/p>\n

Unemployment is lower<\/span><\/a> than it was pre-pandemic; 372,000 jobs<\/span><\/a> were added in June alone. And GDP growth is being slowed intentionally because<\/em> things were getting too hot: \u201cThe economy has downshifted from its torrid pace of 2021 as federal stimulus programs ended and rampant inflation cut into consumer spending and corporate profits. The Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates to slow demand at a time when the economy remains constrained by ongoing supply chain issues,\u201d writes US News<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Finally, as Michael Grant highlights in this episode<\/span><\/a> of Animal Spirits<\/em>, every recession in history has been preceded by stress in the credit markets. We aren\u2019t seeing that right now. As one Bloomberg analyst<\/a> wrote, we aren\u2019t \u201canywhere close\u201d to a point that would be considered troubling.<\/p>\n

The data don\u2019t seem to match the ongoing narrative that the world is coming to an end, and if we can reset supply and demand to a reasonable equilibrium (as opposed to the whiplash of 2020\u2019s screeching to a halt and 2021\u2019s manic money printer), I think our economic outlook will improve rapidly.  <\/p>\n

After all\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

\n

This Twitter user (whom I don\u2019t know, but their tweet was suggested to me) makes a good point: We\u2019re throwing around the word \u201crecession\u201d a lot for an economic reality that doesn’t seem to mirror typical<\/em> recessionary conditions. <\/p>\n

And to quote one exchange in the replies: \u201cWhat\u2019s the difference? If things are more expensive for households, why shouldn\u2019t people consider this a recession?\u201d<\/p>\n

The answer? \u201cThe members of the households in question haven\u2019t lost their jobs.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

In all our concern about our dollar not going as far, we forget: The Federal Reserve has created this environment by design<\/em>. They want<\/em> you to buy less. Their hope is that you, the consumer, will be able to afford less\u2014and therefore buy less\u2014to lessen demand and give supply a chance to catch up. (Which will, yes, lower inflation.)<\/p>\n

Of course, it doesn\u2019t feel<\/em> good, in the same way that committing to a New Year\u2019s resolution to \u201ceat better\u201d after three straight weeks of chugging spiked eggnog and devouring Christmas cookies by the tubful doesn\u2019t feel good. The party\u2019s gotta end at some point, right? And if the aforementioned \u201cparty\u201d was mostly just due to printing trillions<\/span><\/a> of dollars and\u2014now\u2014things are slowing down because we\u2019ve stopped<\/em> printing? That\u2019s (probably) a good thing. <\/p>\n

Oh yeah, and about all that printing\u2026<\/h2>\n

In a way, the stock prices<\/span><\/a> we saw last year were fake\u2014much like the \u201cgrowth\u201d was kind of<\/em> fake. Maybe that\u2019s why now it feels like we\u2019re reverting to a less fun \u201cnormal,\u201d to price-to-earnings ratios that exist in a realm of reality that\u2019s sustainable.<\/p>\n

Why do price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratios<\/span><\/a> matter? Well, they\u2019re not the only<\/em> thing that matters, to be sure, but they\u2019re a decent way to determine how undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued the stock market is at any given moment\u2014the P\/E ratio answers the question, \u201cHow much do I need to spend<\/em> in order to earn<\/em> a certain amount?\u201d <\/p>\n

Since the prevailing theory (that I\u2019ve come across, at least) is that modern monetary theory and its subsequent quantitative easing<\/span><\/a> got us into this mess, then it stands to reason that looking at the price-to-earnings ratios pre-money printing<\/em> would represent \u201cnormal\u201d\u2014the undistorted price signal. Once we get back to those P\/E ratios, then we\u2019d be back to \u201cnormal.\u201d <\/p>\n

So what would that look like? Quantitative easing kicked off in March 2009<\/span><\/a>. As soon as the banks started writing off the bad mortgage-backed securities debt in 2009, the P\/E ratio skyrocketed<\/span><\/a> (because earnings were low or negative), jumping from a median of around 15 to a staggering 123 in May 2009<\/span><\/a>. But to figure out what was<\/em> \u201cnormal,<\/em>\u201d <\/em>we can probably use the P\/E of around 15\u2014the average before the Great Financial Crisis and the subsequent Fed triage. <\/p>\n

And now? Our current P\/E ratio is about 19<\/span><\/a>. This isn\u2019t a huge<\/em> difference compared to historical highs (hello, low-40s in the peak of the dotcom bubble), but it\u2019s still far off enough that I\u2019m prepared to make\u2026<\/p>\n

My unhinged thought experiment about the bottom that shouldn\u2019t be taken seriously<\/h2>\n

In order to reach the \u201cequilibrium\u201d of the pre-QE world (assuming that really was<\/em> equilibrium), S&P 500 would have to come down from 3,825 points to about 3,200 points, assuming earnings per share stay consistent at the current 12-month average of $207<\/span><\/a>. If earnings go down<\/em>, it would have to drop below 3,200 points. But\u2014and here\u2019s the bull case\u2014if earnings per share go up<\/em>, the drop back towards \u201cnormal\u201d may not have to be as precipitous. <\/p>\n

How much would earnings per share have to go up in order for prices to remain at 3,800 points and<\/em> hit a P\/E ratio of 15? From $207 per share to about $250 per share, or an increase of about 21%.<\/p>\n

Earnings have never been anywhere close to that high\u2014in fact, somewhere around $207 is the highest they\u2019ve ever been\u2014but if the S&P 500 increases profits (perhaps by finding new customers in other countries, identifying efficiencies, or simply doing more with less), a further drop could be mitigated. <\/p>\n

But the wealth destruction is already underway, and if your theory is that \u201cQE broke the markets,\u201d we have a decent guess of how much further we have to fall to un-break it (the S&P 500 at roughly 3,200 points). We could always start by eliminating excess like this<\/span><\/a>, documented in a \u201cday in the life at LinkedIn!\u201d TikTok that got absolutely incinerated on Twitter.<\/p>\n

To put it in perspective, a fall to 3,200 points would be an approximate 16% drop from where we are now. At the time of this writing, we\u2019re already down 20% from the start of the year; all in all, it\u2019d be a 33% drop from where we started the year; coincidentally more or less in line with the average drawdown of 33.5%<\/span><\/a>. Once we reach a P\/E ratio of 15, we\u2019d be back at the \u201cequilibrium state\u201d of the pre-QE world (or rather, what we could consider \u201cundervalued\u201d to \u201cfair value\u201d\u2014but these terms are starting to feel like the same thing).<\/p>\n

The actual issue? Wage stagnation<\/h2>\n

\u201cOh, great, Katie\u2019s fetishized socialism and liberal woke politics have entered the chat!<\/em>\u201d Not so, my friends. These circumstances are connected, and it\u2019s all in the name of (a) improving quality of life for workers and<\/em> (b) boosting profits and growth. Stick with me!<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the thing: The recession label bugs me because it distracts from the actual<\/em> reason people are struggling: wage stagnation and worsening wealth inequality. <\/p>\n

If the price of your gas increasing by 53%<\/span><\/a> from the start of the year is enough to force you into living paycheck-to-paycheck (or worse, into debt), you were already way too close to the edge and probably underpaid. For many, this is not an issue of irresponsible spending or poor money management\u2014the \u201cbottom 50%\u201d of Americans have an average annual pre-tax salary of $19,000<\/em><\/span><\/a>. Yeah. <\/p>\n

Roughly half the country being unable to afford living (and working) in it much longer simply isn\u2019t sustainable, and we have to find a way to balance shareholder interest with the broader employable workforce\u2019s<\/em> interests. Sure, we want corporate profits to increase in the name of the almighty shareholder\u2014but if the price is great at the expense of a fair wage for the employees? We\u2019re robbing Peter to pay Paul.<\/p>\n

The solution to both of these problems is the same thing<\/h2>\n

How do we do it? Hear me out: We treat employees better, not just hope that those same underpaid employees hold stock. Need an example of what happens when you put employees first, compensate them fairly, and provide job security?<\/p>\n

Look no further than Southwest Airlines<\/em>. Southwest Airlines is one of the only domestic airlines<\/span><\/a> that\u2019s never gone bankrupt and\u2014up until the global Pamela Anderson\u2014had 47 years<\/span><\/a> of consecutive profitability, a feat that\u2019s unheard of in the airline industry. They\u2019re the quintessential MBA business case study.<\/p>\n

How does Southwest do it? Well, for starters, they committed early to a disruptive, scrappy business model, and their late founder, Herb Kelleher, was creative. One of his main beliefs in business was that your employees need to come first. They\u2019ve never furloughed employees. The pay is fair. They treat people well. They have a 9.3% dollar-for-dollar 401(k) match and other excellent benefits, including great health insurance, free flights, and profit-sharing. Maybe that\u2019s why they were ranked in Glassdoor\u2019s \u201cTop 10 Best Places to Work\u201d for 10 years in a row<\/span><\/a>. (Can confirm these things; I worked there for five years.)<\/p>\n

Southwest is in a league of its own when it comes to impressive, sustained growth and profitability and<\/em> being known for treating employees excellently, if not a little irritating during Group C boarding (IYKYK). Their employees are known for consistently going above and beyond<\/span><\/a>, flying in the face (pun intended) of the stereotypical \u201crude and overworked airline employee\u201d trope (though, not without the occasional disappointing mess<\/span><\/a>, to be fair).<\/p>\n

A workforce that\u2019s paid well and happy must not be very productive, right? All those benefits must come at significant expense to the company, huh? Well, it\u2019s a long-term game, and Southwest is winning. LUV (Southwest\u2019s ticker symbol) has been one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 over its 40+ year history. <\/em><\/p>\n

When you treat employees well and pay them fairly, they\u2019re loyal to you. They work hard for you\u2014kinda like the four employees responsible for ingeniously hedging fuel prices to save the company $1.2 billion<\/span><\/a> this year alone. <\/p>\n

Contrast this with Amazon\u2019s current hiring dilemma: They\u2019re running out of people<\/span><\/a> to hire because their turnover rates are so high. It\u2019s projected that\u2014if they continue business as usual\u2014they\u2019ll run out of new employees by 2024.<\/p>\n

Amazon is a hot growth stock, but it\u2019s not sustainable. White-hot growth doesn\u2019t last forever when you treat your employees like garbage<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

The economic growth we need will not come from a workforce that\u2019s overworked, underpaid, and considered expendable. For our classic American innovation and ingenuity to get us out of this one, we must do as Kelleher<\/span><\/a> said, and make an \u201caudacious commitment\u201d to \u201cput employees first, customers second, and shareholders third.\u201d Turns out it\u2019s pretty good for sustained profitability.<\/p>\n

The good news? While the stock market and supply chains will likely continue correcting, the job market is still strong\u2014and by fixing the way we treat (and compensate) workers, we\u2019ll likely see these other economic growth factors improve, too. A win-win. Maybe things have to get worse before they can get better; the metaphoric Amazon has to run out of workers<\/em> (or rather, realize that\u2019s where they\u2019re headed) before their labor practices will turn the corner. <\/p>\n

Either way, there\u2019s reason to believe we\u2019re in the worst of it now\u2014and avoiding a true recession is entirely possible, if not probable. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I need to get something off my chest, as we all wait with bated breath for the June 2022 GDP growth numbers on July 29 to learn whether or not we\u2019re officially in \u201crecession\u201d territory. No? Just me? 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