{"id":374,"date":"2021-05-19T11:58:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-19T11:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/reality-check-investing-in-the-last-decade\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T17:03:44","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T17:03:44","slug":"reality-check-investing-in-the-last-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/reality-check-investing-in-the-last-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"Reality Check: Investing in the Last Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

\n

As a personal finance obsessor and generally well-meaning person, I find myself saying variations of this sentence a lot:<\/p>\n

\n

You NEED to start investing. It\u2019s the EASIEST way to build wealth passively. Do you have time to look at quick compound interest chart? Are you interested in hearing the Good Word from our Lord & Savior, Jack Bogle, founder of the index fund?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And you know what? Most of the time, that\u2019s true. In fact, when you zoom way<\/strong> out (I\u2019m talking 50 or 100 years out) on a \u201cstock market returns\u201d chart, it feels inevitable. The line is choppy, but it\u2019s mostly up and to the right.<\/p>\n

Since I\u2019ve started investing a few years ago, there have only been two big memorable \u201cdrops.\u201d One was a blip, and the other was a crash-ier blip, but I\u2019d still consider both blips:December 24, 2018<\/span><\/a> andMarch 16, 2020<\/span><\/a>. Granted, March 2020 made December 2018 look like a bunny slope as it lost nearly 13% in a single day, but then something unforeseen happened:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"

This.<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

After the drop, the relentless climb upward continued, mostly unperturbed.<\/p>\n

By August, it was back to its previous high, and now, a year later, it\u2019s higher than it\u2019s ever been.<\/p>\n

Except, look around you: We\u2019ve just sent out the third stimulus check. Unemployment is still high. Vaccine rollout is choppy. I don\u2019t know that anyone would look at our economy and say, \u201cYep, that\u2019s what you\u2019d expect would be behind stock market all-time highs!\u201d<\/p>\n

How investing in the last decade has differed from investing in the past<\/h4>\n

In short, in the past 10 years, the market\u2019s average annual return is around 14%. That\u2019s\u2026 unbelievable. That means if you put $1,000 into VTSAX (the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund) in 2011, your total increase would be 274%, and you would\u2019ve effortlessly turned $1,000 into $3,749.<\/p>\n

Those of us who started investing in the last decade or so have been utterly spoiled with seemingly incredible returns, and while I\u2019m happy our portfolios are doing so well, I worry that we won\u2019t be mentally prepared for the inevitable losses that\u2019ll likely follow over the next few decades. Not every 10-year period will feel like 2011-2021.<\/p>\n

For example, let\u2019s look back just one decade sooner:<\/p>\n

If you had put $1,000 into VTSAX in December of 2000 and checked back in June of 2009, you\u2019d have\u2026 less than $1,000<\/em>.<\/p>\n

I have to be honest, when I saw that for the first time, I thought, \u201cShit.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s pretty demoralizing, no? Can you imagine investing your money in the so-called safest index fund in the game and ending up almost exactly where you started 10 full years later?<\/p>\n

Now, obviously, the subtext is that this investor (hopefully) would\u2019ve had the #guts to stay invested and trust that better things were coming: Had they stayed the course, today, they\u2019d have $4,828 to show for their initial $1,000.<\/p>\n

But the ride they went on from 2000 to 2010? They ended mostly where they started. It looked like this:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"

See the bracketed lines underneath the big chart that encapsulates that more or less flat period? Ugh. What a drag.<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

So yes, while I believe the stock market IS a relentless wealth-building machine, there will be times where you\u2019re down: And sometimes it\u2019s not just \u201cdown\u201d in the same way that we were down in March; it\u2019s not always a trampoline that propels us immediately back upward.<\/p>\n

The point is, it\u2019s going to test your nerves, and you have to have a long-term outlook to be successful \u2013 \u201clong\u201d meaning decades, not months.<\/p>\n

How you can protect yourself from a lost decade<\/h4>\n

Well, the go-to answer here is diversification<\/strong>. Paul Merriman, one of my favorite financial educators, is a big fan of small-cap value funds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

(If you\u2019re scratching your head like, Sis, WHAT?<\/em>, let\u2019s pause and talk about what the word \u201ccap\u201d means.)<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll probably hear large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap most frequently when talking about index funds: and it stands for market capitalization<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This is a fancy phrase that essentially describes how big a company is.<\/p>\n

When you think \u201csmall-cap,\u201d don\u2019t think the bakery down the street from you \u2013 \u201csmall business\u201d on Wall Street ain\u2019t the same thing as a small biz in your hometown: It means their market capitalization (what they\u2019re \u201cworth\u201d) is between $300M and $2B<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the contrary, a \u201clarge-cap\u201d company is worth between $10B and $200B. That\u2019s billion, with a B.<\/p>\n

Paul Merriman loves small-cap value funds because historically they\u2019ve outperformed the big boys. His explanation for this is rather compelling: Apple didn\u2019t start out as Apple. It had to grow to get to the point it is now. When you own small-cap value funds, you own stocks when they\u2019re considered a bargain \u2013 before they blow up. Most of them will fail and fall off entirely, but one shooting star that captures explosive growth can (and will) carry the entire index.<\/p>\n

Rather than trying to seek out those tiny, fledgling winners and risk it all, owning a small-cap value index fund allows you to track the entire index.<\/p>\n

If you had been diversified during that time period from 2000 to 2009 we looked at earlier and owned some small-cap value, your returns would\u2019ve looked quite different.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"

The blue line is VTSAX, and the red line is VISVX, the Vanguard Small Cap index. To be clear, that\u2019s still a wild f***ing ride \u2013 but at least you would\u2019ve come out ahead.<\/p><\/div>\n

\n

Those crazy ups and downs you see above are known as volatility<\/strong>. It\u2019s an emotional rollercoaster, like dating a guy whose previous six girlfriends had the suffix \u201c-eigh\u201d on their names instead of an \u201c-ey.\u201d<\/p>\n

So if you\u2019re like, Well screw VTSAX, then, I\u2019m all in on whatever the f*** she\u2019s talking about now! Paul Merriman, where you at? <\/em><\/p>\n

Not so fast.<\/p>\n

Remember how we looked at our friend who put $1,000 in VTSAX in December of 2000 and would\u2019ve been bummed in June of 2009 when their money was more or less where they started?<\/p>\n

The past decade has not been kind to small-cap value, and large-cap funds have become the darlings of the day. Remember, historically speaking (looking back many decades, not just one), small-cap value has done better \u2013 and Paul Merriman would have me remind you, much<\/em> better. But we investors are greedy, and we forget to look back at historical trends. We see performance since 2015 and think, Good enough for me. <\/em><\/p>\n

Just take a look at the volatility of small cap value (the blue chunk) compared to large cap growth (the red):<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n

\n

This is why diversification matters.<\/p>\n

But Katie, I thought you said VTSAX meant I was buying the entire stock market?<\/h4>\n

Well, it does! But it\u2019s cap-weighted<\/em>, which means bigger companies are given preference. For example, 10 stocks (out of 3,500+) make up more than 20% of the total value of VTSAX. Amongst them? Apple, Tesla, Facebook, Google, Microsoft. You know, the darlings.<\/p>\n

You have a lot of large-cap exposure if you\u2019re in VTSAX, and only a little small-cap (less than 10%).<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t meant to scare you or over-complicate your strategy<\/h4>\n

After all, if you\u2019re investing with a roboadvisor, you own a lot more than just a total stock market fund \u2013 you\u2019ve got small-cap, mid-cap, emerging markets, international funds, and more (you can click into your \u201cHoldings\u201d tab to see what, exactly, you own). <\/p>\n

JL Collins (the author of The Simple Path to Wealth) would say that\u2019s all unnecessary and you\u2019ll be fine if you just hold VTSAX (and if 2000-2021 is any indication overall, he\u2019s right), but the point is this:<\/p>\n

Those of us that have started investing since 2011 have been blessed with a decade of mostly Gatsby-tier returns and very little hardship<\/h4>\n

The hardship will come. It always does. It\u2019s not a matter of if, but when and how hard. <\/p>\n

And if your portfolio loses half its value overnight, it\u2019s important to steel yourself to the fact that it may be more than just a couple \u201cdown\u201d years \u2013 you may be looking at a bleak decade<\/em>. But if you diversify (either with a robo, or on your own) and practice sincere commitment to a long-term mindset, you\u2019ll weather the storm. <\/p>\n

Paul Merriman wrote a book I read recently called We\u2019re Talking Millions, and I\u2019d recommend it if this small-cap value stuff interests you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n We’re Talking Millions!: 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement<\/a><\/p>\n
By Merriman, Paul A., Buck, Richard<\/div>\n


\n
\n Buy on Amazon
\n <\/span>
\n <\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

Remember that we\u2019ve been blessed with great returns. Enjoy them while they come. <\/p>\n

In conclusion<\/h4>\n

At the end of the day, it\u2019s easy to look back at a decade where we\u2019re averaging 14% per year and say, \u201cInvesting is easy. Growing my wealth is easy. I\u2019m practically printing money over here.\u201d<\/p>\n

A monkey with a Robinhood account could\u2019ve made money over the last decade.<\/p>\n

But when you look at it over the longer term (50 years; 100 years) what you begin to see is that really, you shouldn\u2019t hope for much more than 6-7%. Hope for the best, expect the worst.<\/p>\n

This is why I get frustrated that we\u2019re all jinxing ourselves in ~ personal finance Instagram world ~ where people post graphics with an expected return of 10%. 10%! Obviously<\/em> our money is going to explode if we average 10% per year in perpetuity! But it\u2019s just not likely.<\/p>\n

I try to weigh my options realistically. I know I could lose half my portfolio in a down 5-year period. <\/strong>I know it may not recover for another 5 years. I know I\u2019m taking a risk when I invest, and that past performance really <\/em>isn\u2019t<\/em><\/strong> indicative of future returns<\/em>. That\u2019s why I spend a lot of time emphasizing increasing your save rate (so your life requires you spending less) and minimizing your tax liability (because that\u2019s another thing we can control).<\/p>\n

What the market does with our contributions is a crapshoot. We can look back and pray things will continue the way they have been, but what I always fall back on is this: My alternative is a high-yield savings account that\u2019ll definitely earn less than 1% per year (right now). To me, that\u2019s riskier<\/em> than betting on the stock market, because that definitely<\/em> doesn\u2019t beat inflation. Statistically speaking, if I\u2019m diversified well, I know I have a decent shot at at least<\/em> outpacing inflation and maybe<\/em> doing a whole hell of a lot better.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a personal finance obsessor and generally well-meaning person, I find myself saying variations of this sentence a lot: You NEED to start investing. It\u2019s the EASIEST way to build wealth passively. Do you have time to look at quick compound interest chart? Are you interested in hearing the Good Word from our Lord & […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178814,"featured_media":2437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"si-template-single-post-taxable-investing.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[44],"class_list":["post-374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-and-taxes","tag-taxable-investing"],"yoast_head":"\nReality Check: Investing in the Last Decade - Money with Katie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/reality-check-investing-in-the-last-decade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reality Check: Investing in the Last Decade - Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a personal finance obsessor and generally well-meaning person, I find myself saying variations of this sentence a lot: You NEED to start investing. 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