{"id":172,"date":"2022-04-11T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-11T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/"},"modified":"2025-09-05T16:48:18","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T16:48:18","slug":"how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Tips for Successful Investors in Down Markets: Ignore \u201cBuy and Hold\u201d at Your Own Peril"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That title feels ominous, huh?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The other day, I was mulling over the Traditional vs. Roth debate (#JustKatieThings) again because I was running some projections that showed someone who invested really wisely in a Roth IRA at age 22 could easily 15x their money over 40 years, making the tax liability they originally paid minuscule (though I still ended up coming back to my original thesis: that it only matters if they plan to withdraw all their gains at once, which practically nobody does).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\"><em>Anyway, <\/em>as I was playing with different returns to figure out how likely it would be that someone who starts investing in their twenties would be destined to end up with millions of dollars, I started to wonder something:<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">While the market returns about 10% per year on average, is it reasonable to expect that your <em>average investor<\/em> is going to get 10% per year?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">While I\u2019ve written in the past about how it\u2019s <em>possible<\/em> the average-10%-per-year estimate (pulled from a 100-year history of the market that states the Total Stock Market as measured by proxy by the S&amp;P 500 returns 10% on average per year, before inflation) might not happen in the future <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneywithkatie.com\/blog\/why-do-people-say-stocks-are-overvalued-right-now\" target=\"_blank\">because assets are relatively overpriced right now<\/a>, I ended up settling on a much less sinister explanation for why the average investor shouldn\u2019t bank on getting 10% average returns:<\/p>\n<p class=\"sqsrte-large\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Average investors have a really hard time ignoring their own psychology and <strong>buying and holding<\/strong> for the long-term.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Dalbar, Inc., a company that studies investor behavior and analyzes investor market returns (sounds fancy), found that average investors earn below-average returns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">How below average? <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Well, for the years between 1999 and 2019, the S&amp;P 500 averaged 6.06% per year (mostly dragged down by abysmal 2000-2009 returns after the DotCom crash and subsequent financial crisis in 2008). <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The average equity investor didn\u2019t get 6.06%, though\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/QAIB_PremiumEdition2020_WWA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">they only earned an annualized average return of 4.25%<\/a>. Yikes. That changes our projections for the future quite dramatically, no? <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In that sense, it means that your ability to get 10% annualized returns over the long run might have less to do with the stock market itself than it does <strong>your own behavior.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Because I am\u2014at my core\u2014a neurotic over-preparer, I use 7% average returns + 3% inflation for an average 4% annualized return in the Financial Independence Planner that I use for all my projections in blog posts. I used to feel like I was being way too pessimistic, but now I\u2019m feeling like maybe that was a gut instinct that served me well. I don\u2019t know about you, but I\u2019d rather assume I\u2019m going to do worse than average so I\u2019m pleasantly surprised by over-performance.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Since 1984, 70% of underperformance occurred during only 10 key periods in which investors withdrew their investments during periods of market crises<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Translation from data speak: The vast majority of underperformance happened during a handful of market events in which people freaked out and pulled their money out because the market was crashing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Even more surprising, 80% of time, if an investor had simply held onto their money and done nothing, they would\u2019ve gotten better results a year later\u2014and remember, that doesn\u2019t even assume that they\u2019re holding the S&amp;P 500 or another large cap index fund, just that if they would\u2019ve held <em>whatever they were holding<\/em> instead of selling it, they would\u2019ve been better off a year later.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">The scariest numbers I saw in the report? The 30-year return of the S&amp;P 500 (the benchmark this report is using, by the way; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneywithkatie.com\/blog\/you-might-be-overexposed-to-large-cap-diversifying-beyond-the-total-stock-market-and-sampp-500\" target=\"_blank\">I\u2019ll always advocate for diversifying beyond it and including things like Small Cap Value and International funds in your portfolio, but I digress<\/a>) was 9.96% (where that \u201c10%\u201d number comes from), while the average investor only got 5.04%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Yikes again.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That <em>halves <\/em>the average that most of us personal finance fanatics use in our forward-looking projections (and maybe means that my \u201cpessimistic\u201d Financial Independence Planner is more accurate than I thought).<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">How to not lose your money (or your mind) during downturns<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">All right, so by now, we probably understand that two things are true:<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">(1) Owning a diversified set of index funds and (2) holding them for the long-term is the best way to build wealth without making large, risky bets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Here\u2019s the Money with Katie guide to not blowing your own lead and selling equities when shit hits the fan (and yes, it\u2019s simple in nature\u2014<em>infomercial voice\u2014<\/em>just three easy steps). <\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">1. Build your portfolio the right way in the first place.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">We\u2019ve seen a lot of investor euphoria since April 2020 when the market began its inexplicable (well, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/magazine\/2021\/12\/28\/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177\" target=\"_blank\">not totally inexplicable<\/a>) climb upward, and it became easy to forget that stocks don\u2019t always go up. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">People were taking on more risk (assuming the reward was guaranteed) and keeping super lean cash reserves.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In some cases, that\u2019s OK\u2014if you\u2019ve got multiple sources of income, low expenses, and a small likelihood for emergencies (in other words, you\u2019re not a homeowner or a parent), you probably <em>can<\/em> get away with keeping a pretty lean safety net.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">I think there\u2019s something to be said for identifying the <em>real<\/em> amount you need in an emergency fund (because sometimes cash-creep happens and you end up with way too much sitting on the sidelines), and investor euphoria can provide the greedy incentive for reexamining that\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">But investing a down payment that you need in 90 days? <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Putting your <em>entire<\/em> emergency fund into VTSAX?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That\u2019s a recipe for, \u201cOh, shit, the market is dipping, I need to get that money out <em>now<\/em> before it dips anymore because <em>I need that money soon<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">It stands to reason that your likelihood of pulling money out at the wrong time increases when you invest money that you shouldn\u2019t be. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Beyond keeping the \u201cright\u201d amount of cash on the sidelines to bolster your needs during downturns, it also stands to reason that investing in a diversified mix of index ETFs (as opposed to just one, or a sampling of ETFs that have high correlation) will help buoy your portfolio in the down times and limit the extent to which you feel like you have to make changes in the moment. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">For example, when Tech stocks get crushed (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/02\/03\/facebook-shares-plummet-22percent-after-reporting-weak-guidance.html\" target=\"_blank\">$FB dropping 26% in a single day after a poor earnings report<\/a>), it disproportionally impacts Large Cap Growth ETFs like those that track the S&amp;P 500 (Vanguard\u2019s version is called VOO and it\u2019s a favorite on Personal Finance Instagram). Check out the visualization of how much of the S&amp;P 500 is $FB:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 1538px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ScreenShot2022-02-12at113508AM.webp\" alt=\"   Source: CNBC   \"\/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CNBC<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">That\u2019s normally a good thing, since these tech companies are profit machines via monetization of our own precious attention (yay!), but it also illustrates how the fate of just a few companies (that are typically impacted by the same market forces, regulation changes, and sentiment) more or less dictates the fate of the entire fund. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">If you <em>only<\/em> own the S&amp;P 500 (or the S&amp;P 500 + Total Stock Market) and Large Cap starts getting pounded, you\u2019re going to feel it deeply\u2014and likely <em>feel<\/em> more compelled during the downturn to diversify or sell. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">But just like it\u2019s not advantageous to try picking at a zit once it\u2019s already inflamed and irritated, you\u2019re better off proactively diversifying and making sure your portfolio is benefited by low-ish correlation between the things you own. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And that\u2019s what this is about: Navigating your own psychology and increasing the chances you\u2019ll hang in there.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now that we\u2019ve gotten #proactiv (the zit puns abound!), let\u2019s talk about two psychological strategies.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">2. Remember you still own the same number of shares.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This is something that helped me a lot during the January 2022 correction. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Think about it this way: It\u2019s pretty disheartening to conceptualize tossing money into a bucket and\u2014over time\u2014losing dollars in the bucket. That\u2019s scary, and it\u2019s activates that funky human behavioral reaction of loss aversion. We feel like we\u2019re losing money and we want to <em>stop the pain<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">It suddenly feels riskier.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">But if you imagine you\u2019re <em>exchanging<\/em> that money for a piece of a company (share)? <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">If you remember that you still own the same number of shares and that the number in your brokerage account with the dollar-sign next to it is just the quick conversion of those shares into what they\u2019re worth right this second, it\u2019s easier to hang on and alleviate the feeling that you\u2019re losing anything.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">When prices start falling, pay attention to your <strong>number of shares <\/strong>instead, and remind yourself that <em>that<\/em> number is the same. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Focus on getting more of those shares while they\u2019re priced lower than before, as the <em>number<\/em> of shares is the only metric by which you can fairly judge your own progress (since the market being really up or down could give a false sense of progress or failure).<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">3. Embrace boredom and inaction.<\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This advice is clich\u00e9, but popular for good reason. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">For whatever reason, it becomes more tempting to interfere and get creative when markets are going down. We feel like we <em>must<\/em> be able to \u201ceffort\u201d our way through the bloodbath; to identify the trends and get ahead of them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This is a <em>classic investor folly<\/em>, to the point that it\u2019s practically a trope. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">But the effects of missing the best days in the market are well-documented. Look at this #graph (please hum Nickelback softly to yourself) from J.P. Morgan Asset Management Analysis that demonstrates the absolute haircut you would\u2019ve taken if you <em>missed only the 10 best days in the market <\/em>(assumes you own S&amp;P 500) between 2000 and 2020:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 1650px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ScreenShot2022-02-12at115759AM.webp\" alt=\"   Source: JP Morgan   \"\/><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: JP Morgan<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">And if you\u2019re like, <em>\u201cYeah, but shouldn\u2019t it be relatively easy to not miss the <\/em><strong><em>best<\/em><\/strong><em> days? If I\u2019m pulling my shit out when it\u2019s tanking, how likely is it that I\u2019d quickly miss a best day?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Turns out, it\u2019s not easy at all: 6<strong> <\/strong>of the 7 best days<strong> <\/strong>occurred <strong>after<\/strong> the worst day. 7 of the 10 worst days were followed the NEXT DAY by either top 10 returns over the 20 years OR top 10 returns for their respective years.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">This picture is worth a thousand words:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/ScreenShot2022-02-12at120903PM.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"sqs-html-content\" data-sqsp-text-block-content>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">In conclusion<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">To try to limit your chances of getting nervous and blowing it, try:<\/p>\n<ol data-rte-list=\"default\">\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Having the proper amount of cash set aside in the first place for your personal comfort and expected purchases, and diversify your invested funds proactively.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Remind yourself with excessive fervor that you still own the same number of shares when things are down. In fact, if you need to stop tracking your net worth in \u201cdollars\u201d and start tracking in \u201cshares owned,\u201d try it.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Tattoo these charts about missing the 10 best days in the market to the inside of your arm and reference them frequently.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Realistically, when we project 10% average returns with 3% inflation for our portfolios (or 7%, if you\u2019re trying to control for inflation, though you\u2019ll technically end up with slightly different outcomes doing it that way), we have to remember that it\u2019s not outrageous to claim that <strong>our behavior determines the likelihood that we\u2019ll get that return<\/strong> more than the market itself does. <\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">So if you want to use 10%  returns, remember: You sacrifice your right to those the moment you start trying to hop in and out. If that\u2019s the strategy, create future projections using average 5% returns instead, as that\u2019s what the data tells us is more likely (and\u2014bonus!\u2014it\u2019ll <em>hopefully <\/em>serve as a deterrent for trying to time the market). <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That title feels ominous, huh? The other day, I was mulling over the Traditional vs. Roth debate (#JustKatieThings) again because I was running some projections that showed someone who invested really wisely in a Roth IRA at age 22 could easily 15x their money over 40 years, making the tax liability they originally paid minuscule [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":178814,"featured_media":2432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"si-template-single-post-taxable-investing.php","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,52],"tags":[47,44],"class_list":["post-172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing-and-taxes","category-money-psychology","tag-401ks-and-iras","tag-taxable-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>3 Tips for Successful Investors in Down Markets: Ignore \u201cBuy and Hold\u201d at Your Own Peril - Money with Katie<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 Tips for Successful Investors in Down Markets: Ignore \u201cBuy and Hold\u201d at Your Own Peril - Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"That title feels ominous, huh? The other day, I was mulling over the Traditional vs. Roth debate (#JustKatieThings) again because I was running some projections that showed someone who invested really wisely in a Roth IRA at age 22 could easily 15x their money over 40 years, making the tax liability they originally paid minuscule [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Money with Katie\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-11T12:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-05T16:48:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OnlinePay_Fire-Pink_100x756.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1001\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"757\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Katie Gatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Katie Gatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/\",\"name\":\"3 Tips for Successful Investors in Down Markets: Ignore \u201cBuy and Hold\u201d at Your Own Peril - 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The other day, I was mulling over the Traditional vs. Roth debate (#JustKatieThings) again because I was running some projections that showed someone who invested really wisely in a Roth IRA at age 22 could easily 15x their money over 40 years, making the tax liability they originally paid minuscule [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/","og_site_name":"Money with Katie","article_published_time":"2022-04-11T12:00:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-09-05T16:48:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1001,"height":757,"url":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OnlinePay_Fire-Pink_100x756.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Katie Gatti","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Katie Gatti","Est. reading time":"10 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/","url":"https:\/\/moneywithkatie.com\/how-to-be-a-successful-investor-ignore-buy-and-hold-at-your-own-peril\/","name":"3 Tips for Successful Investors in Down Markets: Ignore \u201cBuy and Hold\u201d at Your Own Peril - 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